Projects

Project Description

Among negative-emissions technologies, direct air capture (DAC) is both the most promising and the least developed. A critical step to DAC policy development is an evaluative framework to support policy for the development and deployment of DAC technologies at scale and over time. This project develops a decision-support framework for direct air capture (DAC) that accounts for the scale of the enterprise, the immersive nature of the system with other infrastructural systems, and the substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding its deployment. We use a dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) approach, a method developed to address decision making under deep uncertainty, to generate a set of policy actions and contingency plans to navigate the development and deployment of DAC in Canada. The DAPP method uses futures scenarios, technological knowledge, and structured engagements with key informants to develop a portfolio of policy pathways for DAC and proposals for contingency planning over the long term, including approaches to monitor risks and opportunities, to contribute to Canada’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The Project proposes a novel application of the DAPP approach and has the potential to add significant foresight capacity to the government’s policy planning process for negative emissions technologies. 

The project is funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada under the Climate Action and Awareness Fund (CAAF). 

I had the pleasure of collaborating with professors from diverse disciplines on this project, including Dr. Vanessa Schweizer (scenario analysis), Dr. Eric Croiset (chemical engineering), Dr. Juan Moreno-Cruz (economics), and Dr. Neil Craik (law). 

Read more about this project and the publications associated with it at https://uwaterloo.ca/climate-intervention-strategies-lab/climate-action-and-awareness-fund-caaf-project.

Methods used in this project include:

Expert workshops, collaborative scenario-building exercises, Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis, integrated assessment modeling (IAM), and frameworks for decision-making under deep uncertainty. 

Publications: 

• Motlaghzadeh, Kasra, Craik, Neil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Schweizer, Vanessa; Fuhrman, Jay; Hipel, Keith W. (2025). Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 88. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02080-z 

• Motlaghzadeh, Kasra, Schweizer, Vanessa. (2024). Navigating Deeply Uncertain and Dynamic Futures for Deploying National Direct Air Capture Systems. AGU24.

• Cortinovis, Stephanie Rose; Craik, Neil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Motlaghzadeh, Kasra; Schweizer, Vanessa. (2024). Scaling Carbon Removal Systems: Deploying Direct Air Capture Amidst Canada's Low-Carbon Transition. Frontiers in Climate, 6, 1338647. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1338647 

• Motlaghzadeh, Kasra, Schweizer, Vanessa; Craik, Neil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan. (2023). Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment. Applied Energy, 348, 121485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121485 

Project Description

We are launching a project aimed at assessing the risks that Canadian critical infrastructures face from climate-related hazards, beginning with a focus on road networks exposed to flooding. This work will combine geospatial data, climate projections, and infrastructure mapping to identify high-risk areas and evaluate potential disruptions to transportation systems. The ultimate goal is to support climate-resilient infrastructure planning and inform adaptive policy strategies for long-term risk reduction across Canada’s critical infrastructure sectors.

The project is led by the Climate Risk Research Group, under the direction of Dr. Jason Thistlethwaite and Dr. Daniel Henstra, both professors at the University of Waterloo. 

Methods used in this project include:

Geospatial analysis, climate models, exposure analysis, network mapping

Project Description

Recognizing that the impacts of flooding are not distributed equally across populations, Partners for Action (P4A) at the University of Waterloo has developed a holistic approach to flood risk assessment. Our methodology integrates census-based socio-economic indicators—such as income, housing conditions, age, and mobility—to construct a composite socio-economic vulnerability index. This index is combined with physical flood hazard mapping to identify the communities most at risk.

Through this work, P4A aims to support proactive and equitable flood risk governance by equipping decision-makers with actionable insights to guide targeted interventions, allocate resources fairly, and build adaptive capacity. Our goal is to ensure that flood risk management in Canada considers not just where floods happen, but also who is most affected and why.

This project was conducted by Partners for Action in collaboration with community partners and other research initiatives.

Methods used in this project include: Flood exposure analysis, Socio-economic vulnerability assessment, Interactive GIS-based web mapping, Geospatial analysis

Publications

Report (English):
Inclusive Resilience: A Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index to Map Flood Risk for Targeted Communications and Disaster Risk Reduction

Report (French)

Résilience Inclusive: Indice de vulnérabilité cartographier les risques d'inondation en cue de communications ciblées et d'une réduction des risques liés aux catastrophes 

Web applications: 

• Edmonton, AB: Link

• Richmond, BC: arcg.is/nz1Gy

• Surrey and Langley, BC: Link

• Thompson, MB: arcg.is/1TqTzm0

• Moose Factory, ON: arcg.is/0yy8Wi

• Ottawa-Gatineau, ON: arcg.is/0DOnbH 

• Ottawa-Renfrew, ON: arcg.is/1DGHvD1 

• Bay St. George, NL: arcg.is/0e1Cja0 

• Halifax, NL: Link

Project Description

This project, conducted as part of my Master’s thesis under the supervision of Dr. Reza Kerachian at the University of Tehran, focused on the Urmia Lake Basin, a region that has experienced severe drought and water scarcity in recent decades. The aim was to model water supply-demand management scenarios under various climate change conditions and to develop advanced decision-making frameworks to support sustainable resource allocation and ecosystem preservation.

Using a combination of hydrological modeling with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and multi-agent decision-making frameworks, we evaluated the trade-offs between competing water uses, including agriculture, domestic supply, and environmental flows. The project incorporated game theory and multi-criteria decision-making methods to reflect the hierarchical and conflicting interests of various stakeholders, ensuring more realistic and robust policy insights.

Methods used in this project include:

Hydrological Modeling (SWAT), Game Theory, (Leader-follower game), Multi-Criteria Decision-making, Multi-Agent Systems

Publications: 

• Motlaghzadeh, Kasra, Eyni, Ali; Behboudian, Massoud; Pourmoghim, Parastoo; Ashrafi, Saeed; Kerachian, Reza; Hipel, Keith W. (2023). A multi-agent decision-making framework for evaluating water and environmental resources management scenarios under climate change. Science of The Total Environment, 864, 161060. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161060 

• Behboudian, Massoud; Kerachian, Reza; Motlaghzadeh, Kasra; Ashrafi, Saeed. (2023). Application of multi-agent decision-making methods in hydrological ecosystem services management. MethodsX, 10, 102130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2023.102130 

• Ashrafi, Saeed; Kerachian, Reza; Pourmoghim, Parastoo; Behboudian, Massoud; Motlaghzadeh, Kasra. (2022). Evaluating and improving the sustainability of ecosystem services in river basins under climate change. Science of The Total Environment, 806, 150702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150702 

• Behboudian, Massoud; Kerachian, Reza; Motlaghzadeh, Kasra; Ashrafi, Saeed. (2021). Evaluating water resources management scenarios considering the hierarchical structure of decision-makers and ecosystem services-based criteria. Science of The Total Environment, 751, 141759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141759 

• Motlaghzadeh, Kasra, Kerachian, Reza; Tavvafi, Aidin. (2020). An Evidential Reasoning-based Leader-follower Game for Hierarchical Multi-Agent Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology, 125294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125294