Equitable Pathways for Post-Net-Zero CDR Obligations: Insights from IAM
Along with my colleagues Dr. Neil Craik, Dr. Juan Moreno-Cruz, and Dr. Vanessa Schweizer, I presented our recent work on burden-sharing principles and their implications for post-net-zero carbon dioxide removal (CDR) obligations at the Scrubbing the Skies webinar series, hosted by Institute for Responsible Carbon Removal at American University.
Context
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays two critical roles in climate mitigation: first, compensating for residual emissions to achieve net-zero, and second, reducing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the post-net-zero period to bring global temperatures back to safer levels. While most countries have pledged to reach net-zero at different timelines, there remains no clear consensus on how to equitably share the burden of CDR beyond net-zero, particularly for reversing temperature overshoot.
This webinar argues that while the first role of CDR—offsetting residual emissions—can ideally be minimized through rapid sectoral decarbonization, the second role—achieving net-negative emissions—remains unavoidable. Removing excess CO₂ from the atmosphere is essential for long-term climate stability. Although post-net-zero may seem distant, expectations around CDR deployment for that period have immediate implications, influencing contemporary policy decisions and shaping long-term planning. In this session, we will explore these concepts and present findings from our recent study, which employs integrated assessment modeling to examine the role of various CDR methods—including direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and enhanced weathering—for Canada under different national carbon budgets derived from burden-sharing principles. The projected CDR growth rates are compared to the historical adoption rates of technologies in Canada, and the insights gained from these comparisons will also be presented.